Most Florida GOP Voters Oppose Marijuana Legalization Ballot Initiative, Poll Finds As Campaign Gathers Signatures
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A majority of Florida Republican voters say they oppose an initiative to legalize marijuana for adult use in the state that an industry-funded campaign is working to place on the 2026 ballot.
As the Smart & Safe Florida campaign continues to collect signatures for the measure, the survey published on Thursday by the University of North Florida (UNF) found that just 40 percent of registered GOP voters support the proposal, compared to 58 percent who are opposed.
They poll focused on Republicans ahead of the party’s state primary elections, so it’s unclear from this sample how the overall electorate feels about the reform. But with just 40 percent GOP support, Democrats and independents would have to come out strongly in favor of the initiative if it has a chance of reaching the steep 60 percent threshold needed to pass a constitutional amendment at the ballot.
“Back in February we asked Florida voters whether they generally support or oppose adults in Florida possessing small amounts of marijuana for recreational use, which garnered a majority (55 percent) of Republicans’ support,” Michael Binder, a professor of political science at UNF, said in a press release.
“It’s interesting that they tend to support legalization in a broad sense, but when put to a yes or no vote, it doesn’t make the cut,” he said. “There could be some lingering effects from the state-sponsored campaign just before election day against the 2024 Amendment 3, which ultimately came just four percentage points short of the supermajority it needed to pass.”
Smart & Safe Florida successfully secured ballot placement for a 2024 legalization measure, but while it received a majority of the vote, it fell short of that 60 percent requirement.
Notably, most Republicans in the state are evidently unpersuaded by the initiative despite the fact that President Donald Trump endorsed the measure on the campaign trail. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), meanwhile, has aggressively opposed the reform, describing it as benefitting limited corporate cannabis interests and arguing it would lead to prolific public consumption.
Here’s how the UNF cannabis question was phrased:
“An amendment has been proposed to the Florida Constitution allowing adults 21 years or older to possess, purchase, or use marijuana for non-medical personal consumption. It would prohibit marketing and packaging attractive to children, as well as vaping and smoking in public. If the measure appears on the 2026 ballot, will you vote yes or no on the amendment?”
The survey involved interviews with 797 active registered Republican voters from July 14-22, with a +/-3.9 percentage point margin of error.
About six months since the campaign started gathering signatures for the 2026 initiative, activists have so far collected about 70 percent of the required signatures to put the measure before voters.
Last month, the state affirmed that the campaign collected enough for the 2026 initiative to trigger a fiscal and judicial review.
DeSantis said in February that the newest measure is in “big time trouble” with the state Supreme Court, predicting it will be blocked from going before voters next year.
“There’s a lot of different perspectives on on marijuana,” DeSantis said. “It should not be in our Constitution. If you feel strongly about it, you have elections for the legislature. Go back candidates that you believe will be able to deliver what your vision is on that.”
“But when you put these things in the Constitution—and I think, I mean, the way they wrote, there’s all kinds of things going on in here. I think it’s going to have big time trouble getting through the Florida Supreme Court,” he said.
In addition to collecting 880,062 valid signatures from registered voters, Smart & Safe Florida must gather them from a minimum of 8 percent of voters in at least half of the state’s congressional districts. The campaign has currently exceeded the needed threshold in just three of the 28 districts, but is close in several others.
At its current signature count, the campaign has already succeeded in reaching one of the first milestones. The state is now statutorily obligated to conduct a judicial and financial review of the measure that will determine its legal eligibility and inform the electorate about its potential economic impact.
The latest initiative was filed with the secretary of state’s office just months after the initial version failed during the November 2024 election.
Smart & Safe Florida is hoping the revised version will succeed in 2026. The campaign—which in the last election cycle received tens of millions of dollars from cannabis industry stakeholders, principally the multi-state operator Trulieve—incorporated certain changes into the new version that seem responsive to criticism opponents raised during the 2024 push.
For example, it now specifically states that the “smoking and vaping of marijuana in any public place is prohibited.”Another section asserts that the legislature would need to approve rules dealing with the “regulation of the time, place, and manner of the public consumption of marijuana.”
Last year, the governor accurately predicted that the 2024 cannabis measure from the campaign would survive a legal challenge from the state attorney general. It’s not entirely clear why he feels this version would face a different outcome.
While just 40 percent of Republican voters support the new version, according to the latest polling, a separate survey showed different results. The poll, released in February, found overwhelming bipartisan voter support for the reform—with 67 percent of Florida voters backing legalization, including 82 percent of Democrats, 66 percent of independents and 55 percent of Republicans.
However, another recent poll from the Florida Chamber of Commerce, a proactive opponent of legalization, found majority support for the reform among likely voter (53 percent) but not enough to be enacted under the 60 percent requirement.
In the background of the campaign’s signature development, DeSantis signed a GOP-led bill last month to impose significant restrictions on the ability to put initiatives on the ballot—a plan that could impair efforts to let voters decide on marijuana legalization next year.
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Separately, a Florida GOP senator claimed recently that the legalization campaign “tricked” Trump into supporting the 2024 measure by misleading him and the general public about key provisions.
Ahead of the election, Trump said in September that he felt Amendment 3 was “going to be very good” for the state.
Before making the comments, Trump met with the CEO of Trulieve, Kim Rivers, as well as with a GOP state senator who is in favor of the reform.
While Trump endorsed the Florida cannabis initiative—as well as federal rescheduling and industry banking access—he has since been silent on cannabis issues. And his cabinet choices have mixed records on marijuana policy.
Photo courtesy of Philip Steffan.
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